Assessing Muslim Terrorism: Lies, Damn Lies and Glenn Beck鈥檚 Statistics
Are you prepared to believe there are 157 million Muslim terrorists in the world? You have a choice: You can take Fox News commentator and radio host Glenn Beck鈥檚 word for it 鈥 or you can insist on proof.
Pausing in the midst of a meandering condemnation of the mainstream media鈥檚 failure to take him seriously last week, Beck delivered up the shocking 鈥渇act鈥 that 10% of the world鈥檚 Muslims are terrorists to his radio audience.
CNN鈥檚 Fareed Zakaria, a well-known author and expert in international relations who once was managing editor of the journal Foreign Affairs, didn鈥檛 buy Beck鈥檚 assertion. On his Sunday news-talk program 鈥淔areed Zakaria GPS,鈥 Zakaria called out Beck in no uncertain terms. [Editor鈥檚 full disclosure note: Zakaria is the brother-in-law of Mark Potok, editor of this blog.] 鈥淏eck wondered why this wasn鈥檛 receiving any media coverage,鈥 he said. 鈥淲ell, let me suggest one reason. It is total nonsense 鈥 a figure made up by Glenn Beck with absolutely no basis in fact.鈥
Deducing from the world鈥檚 estimated Muslim population, Zakaria noted that Beck鈥檚 10% figure would mean there are 157 million Muslim terrorists. Given that there were 11,000 terrorist attacks worldwide in 2009, 鈥 and that鈥檚 all terrorist attacks, not just those by Muslims 鈥 Zakaria surmised that if 100 people were involved in each attack, there still would be only 1.1 million terrorists worldwide.
鈥淕lenn Beck鈥檚 figure is 157 times higher than that,鈥 Zakaria said. 鈥淚f in fact there are 157 million Muslim terrorists in the world, what were the other 155,900,000 of them doing last year?鈥
Beck was back with a counterpunch the next day, protesting that his 10% figure was correct 鈥 even generous. Moreover, he said, it doesn鈥檛 matter how many terrorists there are; what matters is that they want to kill us. 鈥淚f I said to Fareed Zakaria, 鈥楩areed, I鈥檓 not gonna kill you, but I support the people who want to kill you,鈥 am I a problem, Fareed? Yes, yes. I would be a problem.鈥
A problem, yes. A terrorist, no 鈥 not even according to the dictionary from which Beck claimed to be reading, which, he said, defined 鈥渢errorist鈥 as one who 鈥渦ses or advocates terrorism.鈥 Each of those terms implies a markedly higher threshold than merely 鈥渟upporting鈥 terrorism.
Beck said his 10% figure came from a used by many media outlets.
Checkmate? Not quite.
The WPO poll revealed that large majorities of Muslims around the world reject attacks on civilians, even though many share certain goals of terrorists, such as removing U.S. armed forces from Muslim countries. It also did show that over 10% of Muslims in some countries 鈥渁pprove鈥 of attacks on civilians in the United States, but it does not say that 10% of Muslims are terrorists. In any case, unless Beck has discovered the secret of time travel, his 10% figure did not come from the 2009 WPO poll. He鈥檚 believed it since at least 2003, when he proclaimed in his bestselling book The Real America: Messages from the Heart and Heartland that 鈥淸t]en percent of Islam wants to see us dead.鈥
Beck in his book identified the source of his data 鈥 鈥渢ime and reading and prayer鈥 鈥 which is not exactly the preferred methodology of scholars.
Zakaria was born in India to a Muslim household, but his upbringing was emphatically secular. He told the Village Voice in 2005 that he sang Christmas hymns as a child, and also celebrated Hindu and Muslim holidays. 鈥淚 do know a lot about the world of Islam in an instinctive way that you can't get through book learning,鈥 he told the publication. But, he added, 鈥淚 occasionally find myself reluctant to be pulled into a world that's not mine, in the sense that I'm not a religious guy.鈥
Beck has a history of substituting wild guesses for actual knowledge. Whether prognosticating about , accusing the feds of , or speculating that Communists have infiltrated the U.S. government, almost no theory is too far out for the conspiracy-minded eschatologist. And while the mainstream media (of which he clearly doesn鈥檛 consider himself a part 鈥 Fox, take note) doesn鈥檛 seem to value his divinely inspired conjecture, many of Beck鈥檚 fans apparently take him at his word.
In the past two years, at least three men - Kenneth B. Kimbley, Byron Williams, and Richard Poplawski 鈥 have been accused of taking or attempting to take action against entities Beck identified as enemies. Kimbley鈥檚 defense counsel identified Beck as her client鈥檚 鈥渋dol鈥 in court papers; Williams said Beck is like 鈥;鈥 and Poplawski was obsessed with a number of Beck鈥檚 antigovernment theories.
Beck has that there is any link between his rhetoric and his fans鈥 violent acts. Given his hypothetical but angry talk about Zakaria鈥檚 death, it can only be hoped that, for once, he鈥檚 right.